Georgia
Cincinnati
Oklahoma
Alabama
That is the AP poll's week 8 top four, and unless something dramatic happens between now and November 2nd (which seems like a given in this chaotic 2021 season) this will likely be the committee's first top 4. Out of these top four Georgia and Cincinnati have dominated, albeit against different levels of completion. Oklahoma has looked very mortal, but in the six quarters that Caleb Williams has played football the Sooners have looked like a much different team. Alabama has a quality victory over Ole Miss but has not looked as dominant against similar competition, eeking out a close victory against Florida and losing on the road to Texas A&M.
The spots outside the top four get very intriguing. Spots five, six, seven, and nine belong to Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State respectively. Halloween weekend is where things get very interesting for the conference where these four teams begin to play each other in the Big Ten East round-robin. Only Michigan and Michigan State remain undefeated among this group but neither has looked better than Ohio State this year, or Penn State with a healthy Sean Clifford. If Ohio State or Penn State drop a game they are out of the running for a playoff spot, and as long as teams two through four continue to win the margin of error for the Michigan schools is not very large either. At this point, the favorite in this race is likely Ohio State. Despite the loss to Oregon, the defense has taken a leap forward over the past couple of weeks making the Buckeyes the most complete team in the division and Big Ten.
Out of the remaining teams with a shot to make the playoff, the two teams with the best chances are Oklahoma State and Oregon. Oklahoma State is currently sitting at number eight in the AP poll but is the only other undefeated Big 12 team outside of Oklahoma. The Cowboys' resume is not all that impressive but a win over the Sooners would have to vault them into the top 3 by the end of the year, especially once the mess in the Big Ten East clears itself up. Oklahoma State's defense certainly gives them a great chance to take a victory in the (potentially final) Bedlam Series. Oregon on the other hand is heading in the opposite direction. They have one of the best wins of the year with a road win in Columbus against Ohio State. However, they have not looked like the same team since due to a slew of injuries and mediocre quarterback play. Winning out would almost guarantee them a spot in the CFB despite the Pac-12 being at its weakest in years. But as the injuries mount up for the Ducks that path continues to become more and more difficult.
The other teams with an outside shot of sneaking in are Iowa, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, and Baylor. Iowa has a quality win over Penn State at home but the blowout at home against Purdue certainly put their playoff hopes on life support. A lack of another resume-builder until the Big Ten Championship Game will keep them on the fringes. Notre Dame has not looked all that impressive this year and like many of the teams on this list lack the chance at a marquee win. Wake Forest remains a wild card. If they were to win out and finish 13-0 would the committee consider putting them in over an undefeated Cincinnati or even a one-loss SEC or Big Ten champion? The lack of any major win in a poor ACC could keep out an undefeated Deamon Deacons team. Baylor has a matchup with Oklahoma still looming and a rematch with either OU or Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Title Game. Two wins there could elevate Baylor to CFP contender status, but they currently sit at 20th in the AP poll, so there is a long way to climb for the Bears.
Photo Credits: AP Photo Bill Dutch
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