2025 College Football Preseason Rankings

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I will first go over my end of season rankings from the 24-25 season with a catch. These rankings will for sure be weird and very questionable but they are my own and I will die on a hill defending them.

Rank	Team	Record	Season results
1	Ohio State	14-2	Def. Notre Dame 34-23 in National Championship
2	Ole Miss	10-3	Def. Duke 52-20 in Gator Bowl
3	Texas	13-3	Lost to Ohio St. 28-14 in Semi. Cotton Bowl
4	Notre Dame	14-2	Lost to Ohio St. 34-23 in National Championship
5	Indiana	11-2	Lost to Notre Dame 27-17 in First Round of Playoffs
6	Alabama	9-4	Lost to Michigan 19-13 in Reliaquest Bowl
7	Penn State	13-3	Lost to Notre Dame 27-24 in Semi. Orange Bowl
8	Tennessee	10-3	Lost to Ohio St. 42-17 in First Round of Playoffs
9	Georgia	11-3	Lost to Notre Dame 23-10 in Quart. Sugar Bowl
10	South Carolina	9-4	Lost to Illinois 21-17 in Citrus Bowl
11	Oregon	13-1	Lost to Ohio St. 41-21 in Quart. Rose Bowl
12	Miami (FL)	10-3	Lost to Iowa St. 42-21 in Pop-Tarts Bowl
13	Army	12-2	Def. Louisiana Tech 27-6 in Independence Bowl
14	Louisville	9-4	Def. Washington 35-34 in Sun Bowl
15	SMU	11-3	Lost to Penn St. 38-10 in First Round of Playoffs
16	Boise State	12-2	Lost to Penn St. 31-14 in Quart. Fiesta Bowl
17	Tulane	9-5	Lost to Florida 33-8 in Gasparilla Bowl
18	LSU	9-4	Def. Baylor 44-31 in Texas Bowl
19	BYU	11-2	Def. Colorado 36-14 in Alamo Bowl
20	Minnesota	8-5	Def. Virginia Tech 24-10 in Mayo Bowl
21	Missouri	10-3	Def. Iowa 27-24 in Music City Bowl
22	Texas A&M	8-5	Lost to USC 35-31 in Las Vegas Bowl
23	Arizona State	11-3	Lost to Texas 39-31 in Quart. Peach Bowl
24	Arkansas	7-6	Def. Texas Tech 39-26 in Liberty Bowl
25	Auburn	5-7	Lost to Alabama 28-14 Iron Bowl*

*Not technically a bowl game, don't tell Auburn fans

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These rankings were made by a custom formula to try and take all the human element out of thinking who is good and who is bad. I still have a ways to go but as the season progresses I will continue to make tweaks and changes to try and get something that consistently pumps out reasonable lists of teams.

Now, in my opinion, these rankings seem to hold up really well until you hit Minnesota, and I figure you can argue for them. Even the Arkansas arguement has some legs despite their measley 7-6 record and less-than-impressive bowl game victory over Texas Tech. I can't justify Auburn, I really can't. I have been tweaking my formula and have come up with some more reasonable outcomes but there always seem to be a couple of teams that just make no sense.

One has South Carolina at 6, Kansas at 7 and Kentucky at 16. Some how Miss St sneaks to 25 too. Their offense wasn't too bad statistically, overperforming like opponents in both yards and points, their defense just really stinks, 43rd in offense and 114th defense. But it seems that their strength of schedule being 3rd really props them up. SOS greatly benefit Kansas too having the hardest schedule last year. Given that and seeing that they lost to UNLV, Kansas St, and Arizona St by a combined 9 points and that 5 of their 7 losses were by less than 7 points they do earn a few close enough points from me to warrant a glance.

Overall, I'm fairly happy with how my first version came out, adding in the human element is hopefully able to capture a more accurate/reasonable ranking. I will wait to release another computer rnaking on Upper Deck Rants for a few weeks to let some of the data settle. I already exclude FCS games from most data and statistics I use but even three weeks of data and 2/3 games still leaves a lot of room for outliers. An example like Texas and Ohio St. playing each other; I personally think they are the two best teams in the country but one tem will lose leaving them with a .000 winning percentage. Some teams like UNLV schedule 'warm-up' games and will likely have impressive statistics, over-inflating what their thru ranking would be (Like they did to my Bryant Bulldogs back in 2023).

The one team that stayed consistent over the different calculations I did: Kent State. Will I elaborate? No.

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Now for my true, non-computed preseason rankings

Once I get outside the top 6 I your guess is as good as mine. No one realy can tell how good you'll be. You can consistently sign a top recruiting class in the country and still fall far short of expectations. We have seen this recently with Miami, Texas A&M, and even Florida State. You can also be picked to finish last in your conference and end up bringing Texas to the wire in the Peach Bowl like Arizona State and a finish of 7 in the AP Poll. Some other Big 12 surprises were BYU, picked at 13th of 16 with a finish at 13th... in the AP Poll.

1. Texas

2. Ohio St

3. Penn St

4. Notre Dame

5. Georgia

6. Alabama

7. Oregon

8. Clemson

9. South Carolina

10. Ole Miss

11. LSU

12. SMU

13. Florida

14. Miami

15. Illinois

16. Arizona St

17. Michigan

18. Tennessee

19. Iowa St

20. Kansas St

21. Indiana

22. Texas Tech

23. Oklahoma

24. Texas A&M

25. BYU

In my opinion, it takes six weeks of games to even start to understand who is any good. Last year Oklahoma State was a great example of this. Starting 3-0 and topping off at 13 in the AP then they proceeded to lose every game ahead of them. Arizona and Boise State are both good examples too from opposite ends of the spectrum. Outside of the top 6-8 teams, nobody knows until we near mid-November and teams are in their mid-season form and truly fighting for the chance at the conference championship and a spot in the College Football Playoff. My prediction would be that only 10 of the teams I have on this list will find their way on the AP top 25 poll by the end of the season.