Week 1 Deep Dive

Week 1 Deep Dive

While everyone is getting hyped for Ohio State to host Texas and are giving their two cents on who will win and why. Is Archie ready? Will he be overwhelmed? Is Ohio State going to be as good as last year?

Do I care? Obviously I do (Hookem’ Horns). Here’s my take; first game of the season, two new quarterbacks, it’s at Ohio State. Two of the top teams in the country, facing off week 1 in the first timeslot. Me, I have Ohio State winning in a brutal fight, where no team leaves clean. And a score where every point is earned. 31-27 Ohio State.

Ohio and Rutgers kickoff in the second time slot of the Thursday night lineup at 5pm CT and 6pm ET. Two teams that have found some form of recent success. 

Since 1996, Rutgers has seen some very high peaks, and has seen valleys lower than sea level. From 1996-2000, Terry Shea led the Scarlet Knights to a 11-44 (.200) record. When Greg Schiano was brought into the program in 2001 his first two teams had a combined record of 3-20(.130). He was able to turn the program around and into a not just a decent program, but a quality program, winning consistently. The Scarlet Knights still had to wait two more years (going 9-14, .391) until they would find a winning record. From 2005 through Schiano’s last year at Rutgers in 2011 they were a bowl team, and a successful one too. They went to 6 bowl games in those 7 years and won 5 of them, at one point winning four in a row (they missed the postseason in 2010, so I guess they technically did win 5 in a row, just not in consecutive years). During that time they had an overall record of 56-33 (.629). Schiano left for the NFL after going 9-4 and winning the pinstripe bowl. Why do I bring this up? Because he’s back. He’s been back since 2020, but he’s back. He has already re-done what was undone while he was gone. In the 8 years without Schiano, Rutgers has gone 36-63 (.363) and been to 3 bowl games, winning 1. Additionally, those bowl games came with Schiano’s players being the three years right after he left. Since he has been back they’ve gone 26-34 (.433) and they’re last two seasons have been 7-6 and gone to two bowl games, winning one. I see Rutgers finding bowl games consistently in the future.

Ohio, since 2006 has only missed postseason play 5 times and has won a bowl game each of the last three years and has won their last 6 bowl appearances. Tim Albin, a coach that started with a 3-9(.250) record, was able to 30*-10 (.750) in the previous three seasons (*Now head coach Brian Smith was the head coach for their bowl game win, so he gets the 1-0 record. Tim Albin has since left for Charlotte, let’s see if he can revive that mess. Brain Smith will be taking over a successful team from a successful coach. I’m interested in seeing whether or not he will be able to continue this success. I have Ohio as 25th in my postseason rankings, with them returning 59% of their production let's see if they can maintain their momentum into this season.

Overall, I think this will be a competitive game. It’s Brian Smith’s first shot at a P4 win with a team returning a decent amount of its former production and a roster built to win. Meanwhile, Rutgers gets to host the reigning MAC champions while bringing back 71% of last year’s production. ESPN is giving Rutgers a -15.5 advantage in this game, which is understandable given the beast of continuity that Rutgers is. However, I see Ohio putting up one hell of a fight, this is one of the few opportunities they have to have a winning record over P4 opponents. Next week they host West Virginia, then they get to drive about an hour north to face Ohio State. For Rutgers, this is a must win. Being in the Big Ten, wins are earned no matter they play (except maybe Purdue).

I have it as 27-21 for Rutgers and I think that one of two things will happen. Either the score will be more of a blowout despite the play being very close; it could be a close game through 3 quarters, then Rutgers, with the experience gets over the peak, winning by 14-17 points from a small lead then scoring late. I can also see the game being extremely messy, lopsided and frustrating. Leading to a closer score than it should be in favor of Ohio. Regardless, this is not a game that Box Score Keyboard Warriors should pass up.