Week 0 CFB Picks

With the first kickoff less than 24 hours away I wanted to give my two-sense on who I think will start their season undefeated and who will have to wait another week for the chance at their first victory. Week 0 is one of my favorite weeks since you get to see upsets and surprises like 2024 Georgia Tech over Florida State, and Montana State over New Mexico. 2023 Jacksonville State over UTEP and 2019 Florida over Miami are some of the more recent games that were fun watches from previous Augusts.

Saturday’s first game has Farmageddon in Dublin, Ireland at 11am CT (5pm local). Currently 17th ranked Kansas St “hosts” 22nd ranked Iowa State. These teams are just 350 miles, a 5 hour drive away from each other but are traveling well over ten times that to go from one farmland to another but instead of wheat and corn, it’s potatoes! But, if there is any place to be to watch the first game of the year, I’d take the place known for beer.

While Iowa State leads the all-time series 54-50-4, Kansas State is 17-8 since 2000 but Iowa State is 5-2 in their last 7 matchups. This series is a pendulum of success, it’s one team's decade or the other.

Iowa State returns 14 starters while Kansas State returns 11. Both teams return their quarterbacks but Iowa State also returns 5 starters from the offensive line and a tight end. Kansas State returns just two linemen and a tight end. I see this in favor of Iowa State, being able to play with the same offensive line and quarterback from last year should really help Iowa State start faster and smoother than a team trying to replace 3 linemen. Both teams are returning 5 defensive starters.

ESPN has Kansas State at -3 favorites with a 62.3% chance to win. I’d say I can get along with the -3 but I think it should be a closer game. I had Iowa State with the better defense at 29 with Kansas State at 44 returning 5 could go either way, replacing half of any side of the ball is a flip of a coin. Offensively, Kansas State was 36th and Iowa State was 40th. Being that Iowa State is bringing back 9 starters and the whole offensive line over Kansas States’ 6 with Avery Johnson, I’d give the advantage to Iowa State, not by much though.

Overall, I would pick Iowa State to win but I do think that it is much closer to a coin flip than ESPN does. It should be a good game and given the environment and stakes of the game to not just start the season with a win but an in-conference win, as well as the lack of returners on both defenses, I would not be shocked if the total is well over the 51.5 ESPN is giving.I think Avery Johnson will light it up while Iowa State’s offense will be a flood of smaller, consistent, wins, marching down the field.

My prediction: Iowa State 31 - Kansas State 28

For the other week 0 games tomorrow, I foresee the following:

UNLV 42 - Idaho St. 21

Kansas 35 - Fresno St. 21

Western Kentucky 35 - Sam Houston 24

Hawai’i 28 - Stanford 27