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1) Kansas City Chiefs:
Their performance in the Super Bowl was disappointing, but as long as Patrick Mahomes remains the quarterback the Cheifs will remain the favorite to win the AFC and compete for a Super Bowl. While Kansas City does have a couple of role players such as Sammy Watkins and Daniel Sorenson expected to become free agents it should not matter much. Kansas City has eight draft picks to try and replenish the veteran talent with younger, cheaper talent. Kansas City has done a good job in their recent draft picks so I have no doubt they'll be able to continue retooling their roster.
2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After a rocky 7-5 start, the Bucs finished off as Super Bowl champions. The craziest part? It doesn't appear that the team plans to slow down any time soon. Both Bruce Arians and Tom Brady have already said they planned on returning, and I would expect both of them to hold true to their word. However, Tampa Bay does have a couple of major pieces that are set to become free agents including Shaquil Barrett, Levontae David, Rob Gronkowski, and Ndamukong Suh just to name a few. However, I would expect at least Barrett and Gronkowski to return. Also, at the moment it doesn't look like anyone will be poached from Arians' staff so it looks like the Buccanneers will get a chance to run it back.
3) Buffalo Bills
Their performance in the AFC championship game was disappointing but there is a lot of young talent that really impressed on this team. Most of their impending free agents are not significant contributors. There are still a couple of lingering questions after the AFC championship game. How can they improve the rushing attack? Can Josh Allen continue to progress if Brian Daboll were to land a head coaching job somewhere? The Bills do have the pieces to run it back, especially if the defense gets back to its 2019 form and if Josh Allen is able to take that next step.
4) Los Angeles Rams
The quarterback position was set to be a major question mark going into the offseason. However, that is no longer the case after the Rams traded for Matt Stafford. The Rams are going all-in over the next two to three years. Leonard Floyd is also set to be the only key contributor to hit free agency this off-season. The Los Angeles defense has been elite for some time now and finally got the recognition it deserved this past season. With Matt Stafford under center, the offense will only continue to get even better but Sean McVay may finally have the big play quarterback he's been looking for.
5) Green Bay Packers
After the mini-renaissance from Aaron Rodgers this past season the Packers show no sign of slowing down. Even after the disappointing loss to the Buccanneers (which can be at least partially attributed to injuries) it has become clear that Green Bay needs some help in the secondary. Another true receiving threat opposite of Davante Adams wouldn't hurt either. The Packers have a couple of key pieces on the offensive line heading into free agency, but the team looks to be in a position to run it back once again. Although one has to wonder how much longer Aaron Rodgers has left as an MVP-caliber quarterback.
6) Cleveland Browns
There was a lot to like about the Browns after their playoff loss to the Chiefs. After a poor sophomore campaign Baker Mayfield really stepped up to become an effective quarterback, and the running back tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt was really spectacular. The defense could lose a couple of key pieces in the secondary and on the defensive line but much of the talent remains young and on team-friendly deals. This offseason will give the Browns the chance to secure both their short-term and long-term future.
7) Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson certainly took a step back in 2020, but the lack of reliable receivers and other offensive weapons was undoubtedly an issue. Unfortunately, they seem to be dealing with more drama on that side of the ball with Orlando Brown asking for a trade to a team that will play him exclusively at left tackle. The defense for the Ravens was excellent but they are going to need to look to either replace or re-sign Yannick Ngakoue and Matt Judon. It is going to be a busy off-season in Baltimore but this is one of the well-run organizations in the league so I would expect them to retool the offense while maintaining the strength of their defense.
8) San Francisco 49ers
2020 was a wildly disappointing season going from NFC champions to 6-10. However, that drop off can mostly be attributed to injuries. However, even if the team were to stay 100% healthy there are still a couple of looming questions, one of which is what they do at the quarterback position. If the answer ends up being Deshaun Watson the 49ers will be in pretty good shape. If not 2021 could be a make or break year for Jimmy Garoppolo. Richard Sherman and Trent Williams are also set to become free agents as well. If San Francisco can figure out the quarterback position it could help offset some of the holes that may develop on the offensive line and secondary. Otherwise, the 49ers may need to get creative in how they solve some of those problems.
9) Miami Dolphins
The future for 2021 and forward hinges on the quarterback position. Brian Flores and company have done a phenomenal job of completely overhauling the Dolphins organization and turning it back into a winner. However, in 2020 the quarterback position was what held the Dolphins out of the playoffs. I believe that Tua can turn the corner and become a successful NFL quarterback, and more time in the league will help smooth over some of the rookie mistakes that he was prone to. Also, with Chan Gailey gone the offense should become more explosive which will further help out the offensive production. A top-3 pick from the Texans will add even more talent that can contribute as well.
10) Seattle Seahawks
I have my doubts surrounding the Seahawks and it is all about the offensive line. In fact, the offensive line has been so bad it is starting to sour the relationship between the Seattle front office and Russell Wilson. The Seahawks are also having to deal with plenty of impending free agents such as Chris Carson, Shaquem Griffin, and KJ Wright. Jamal Adams' contract is up in 2022 and that's another priority contract Seattle would like to get done before next season. Seattle has a lot of the pieces but after an up and down 2020 and with a strange amount of uncertainty headed into 2021 it's hard to imagine the Seahawks being better than the third-best team in the NFC West.
11) Tennessee Titans
Even with the departure of Arthur Smith this offense should still be effective as long as Derrick Henry remains in the backfield. However, Their loss against the Ravens was alarming as Henry was completely shut down and the Titans offense sputtered. Save for Smith's departure there is a lot of continuity within the Titans organization. The defense is still a huge question mark, as they will need to overhaul their secondary in the upcoming offseason.
12) Arizona Cardinals
After a fast 5-2 start which included wins against the Seahawks and Bills, the Cardinals stumbled to an 8-8 finish. Many look to blame the defense for the collapse, though the story is not quite that simple. Both the offense and defense were pretty pedestrian in the second half of the season, but it was the kicking game that struggled mightily. Multiple key misses in late-game situations cost Arizona football games, and if the special teams had even been average the Cardinals would have likely made the playoffs. Arizona has a couple of important defensive players that are going to hit free agency this upcoming offseason. The Cardinals have an upward trajectory but they really need to take another step forward in year three of the Kingsbury era.
13) Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are not a flashy football team, nor are they a team with a significant upside. Their ranking here has more to do with the teams below them than their actual talent level. However, this is still a good football team. The Indianapolis defense was good in 2020 should continue its upward trajectory in 2021 as long as they can keep most of the pieces together. Quarterback remains a significant question mark with the retirement of Phillip Rivers but if they are able to nail down a quarterback this team can compete for an AFC South Championship
14) Pittsburgh Steelers
After starting out 11-0 it looked like the Chiefs may have a legitimate challenger in AFC. However, after losing 4 out of their last 5, including to teams like Washington and Cincinnati, and including their blowout loss to Cleveland in the first round, there isn't a lot of positive momentum in this organization's favor. Ben Roethlisberger remains a huge question for the Steelers, and with players like Bud Dupree, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Alejandro Villanueva set to become free agents, there is a lot of uncertainty headed into 2021. If the defense can regain its form it can at least carry the Steelers to playoff contention.
15) New Orleans Saints
If the cap wasn't expected to shrink the Saints would not be this low. After all, over the past four years they have won more regular-season games than any other team in the NFL. However, with Drew Brees' retirement and them expected to be $100 million over the salary cap the Saints could take some considerable steps back. With key parts of the defense expected to become free agents, plus the questions at quarterback it would be tough in a normal offseason for them to retool for a run at a Super Bowl. Combine the upcoming issues with the cap plus not having the capital to make a move on a top-tier quarterback and the task even looks more monumental. Given the weak nature of the NFC South, it is not impossible for the Saints to compete for a wild card spot, but I doubt they will be able to repeat for an NFC South title.
16) Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert took the league by storm this past season, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, quite a surprise given how most people viewed Herbert going into the 2020 draft. As long as Herbert continues to progress the Chargers can now say they have their quarterback of the future, a huge building block in their desire to compete in the AFC. While the hire of Brandon Staley was a bit odd, he did lead the Rams to one of the top defenses in the NFL this past year. The Chargers are on the right path, and as long as the clock management improves under Staley Los Angeles should be able to compete for a wild card spot.
17) New England Patriots
Simply put there is no way the Patriots will miss the playoffs in 2021. Last year's 7-9 record was an aberration for a Bill Belichick led football team. The quarterback position was a huge problem and I would expect that is the first thing the Patriots will take care of in the upcoming offseason, while the wide receiver and tight end position are the number two things on Belichick's to-do list. The defense was still serviceable in 2020, and I would expect that to continue in 2021. The only thing really holding back the Patriots is that the Dolphins and the Bills have caught up to the Tom Brady-less Patriots in the talent department. But don't sleep on New England in 2021.
18) Washington Football Team
After winning a terrible NFC East the Football Team proved that they may in fact have a bright future, competing with the Buccanneers for the full 60 minutes in their first-round loss. By now it has become clear that the defense is elite and boasts one of the scariest defensive lines in the NFL including Chase Young and Montez Sweat. However, quarterback remains an issue, as neither Alex Smith nor Taylor Heinicke are suitable long-term options. And picking towards the bottom of the first round due to their playoff birth won't help the quarterback position either. Right now they are the most complete team in the NFC East but that is not saying much.
19) Dallas Cowboys
The biggest issue facing the Cowboys has been the same since 2018. Locking up Dak Prescott to a long-term deal. After he went down it became very apparent that he was the engine of the offense as they were about 80-100 yards and 8-10 points per game better with him on the field. If they can finally get a deal done with their quarterback they can then focus on rebuilding the back end of the defense, which has struggled since the 2019 season. The Cowboys are probably one of the highest-ceiling teams in the NFL, but also have one of the lowest-floors, which was fully exhibited this past season.
20) Las Vegas Raiders
For two straight years, the Raiders have completely collapsed in the back half of the regular season, missing the playoffs in two years where they could have snuck in as a wild-card team. The Derek Carr question continues to loom over the Raiders and the organization would be better off either fully committing to Carr or shipping him off and starting over. The quarterback position will be pretty irrelevant though if Las Vegas can't improve on a defense that ranked 30th in the league in points allowed per game. The Raiders are dangerously close to falling behind in the race in the AFC West given the upward trajectory of the Chargers and if the Broncos can get healthy.
21) Minnesota Vikings
Unfortunately for Minnesota, their best shot at a Super Bowl might have been in the 2017 season as the defense continued to regress in 2020. The offense continues to take steps forward under Kirk Cousins, especially with the arrival of Justin Jefferson, but until the defense can return to its dominant form competing against the Packers in the NFC North figures to be a tall task. And with plenty of defensive pieces expected to enter free agency Zimmer and company will have to completely retool the defense, but it might be for the best. However, the salary cap lowering may make that more difficult than anticipated.
22) Carolina Panthers
While the 5-11 record may not show it the Carolina Panthers were an incredibly competitive football team in 2020, even without star running back Christian McCaffery, who was out for most of the season. While Teddy Bridgewater is not the long-term solution to the quarterback position he could prove to be a nice bridge quarterback for whoever they take in the upcoming draft. The offensive line will be a need as well but the biggest issue remains at quarterback.
23) Atlanta Falcons
This team is in a conundrum. Do they make one last playoff push and fill needs on the defensive side of the ball, or do they blow it up and start fresh? Given the weakness in the bottom half of the NFC, they may roll the dice and push of a playoff spot, especially since Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are still performing well. At the very least the organization is not in total disarray, but there isn't exactly a lot of direction either. 2021 will likely be a make-or-break season for Atlanta and will set the tone for the organization's path from 2022 and onward.
24) New York Giants
The Giants' defense showed a lot of promise in 2020, though one has to wonder how much of that has to do with the fact they got to play Washington, Dallas, and Philidelphia for 6 games. It is the offense that really struggled in 2020, though it did not help that for the second straight season Saquon Barkley missed significant time. Unfortunately, Daniel Jones did not exactly take the "next step" either, as he was still prone to turning the ball over. General Manager Dave Gettleman is on the ropes this offseason, and don't be surprised if he tries to make a couple of big moves. However, the Giants need too much to really be competitive, especially when the quarterback position is still a question.
25) Denver Broncos
Denver was one of the teams most impacted by injuries and COVID-19 this past season, most famously having to play a game with Kendall Hinton starting at quarterback. And while injuries piled up the defense really struggled down the stretch. Since their Superbowl 50 win, the quarterback position has been a huge question for this football team and that issue hasn't subsided. Their depth in the secondary will also be another issue they need to fix as that got exposed in 2020 as well. If Denver can stay healthy in 2020 and figure out the quarterback position in 2021 they have an outside chance of sneaking into the playoffs.
26) Chicago Bears
The quarterback position continues to haunt the Chicago Bears and until they can figure that issue out this team's ceiling is 8-8, 9-7. The defense remains in the top half of the league but is no longer the elite unit that it was in 2018. Furthermore, with Allen Robinson expected to leave Chicago as a free agent a weak offense will get even weaker. The Bears are stuck in mediocrity and this team looks more like the one that finished 3-7 over its last ten games rather than the one that started 5-2. There doesn't seem to be any real organizational direction in Chicago, and it is starting to become really detrimental.
27) Cincinnati Bengals
The injury to Joe Burrow was tough, as it probably set the Bengals back a year in their development. The only silver lining is that it looks like Cincinnati will finally address the dire need on the offensive line, and they should be in a pretty good position to do so with a top five pick where they can either pick Sewell, or trade down for additional draft capital to select multiple offensive linemen. Cincinnati also needs help defensively. This team is certainly still in the beginnings of a rebuild but there at least is some organizational direction, unlike other teams on this list.
28) New York Jets
After years of being the laughing stock of the NFL the organization is starting to turn the corner. Hiring Robert Saleh was a great decision for this organization. Saleh is a fantastic X's and O's coach, but he is also a phenomenal leader and has the perfect demeanor to lead a team like the Jets through what has been a difficult rebuild. Quarterback remains a big question mark, but with the 2nd overall pick they at least have some options. Do they stick with Sam Darnold and truly build around him? Or do they select Justin Fields or Zach Wilson and start from ground zero? Deshaun Watson doesn't seem interested in going to New York so unfortunately for the Jets that doesn't seem like much of an option. They four picks in the top 70 so they should be able to add plenty of young talent. For the first time in years the Jets seem to be heading in the right direction.
29) Philidelphia Eagles
Make no mistake this organization is a mess. That Super Bowl victory seems like ancient history at this point given that Doug Pederson is gone and Wentz is likely to be shipped out of Philidelphia any day now. The offense is a total train wreck. Outside of Miles Sanders this offense is pretty devoid of any weapons. The defense which was pedestrian at best really fell off by the end of the season. At the very least the Eagles will have the sixth overall pick, and will be able to either select one of the elite receivers available or the best defensive player available.
30) Detriot Lions
Detriot essentially announced that they were going into a rebuild once they traded Matthew Stafford. At the very least the Lions will have a plethora of early picks the next couple years that they can use to build the organization around There are a couple of promising pieces here but it is going to be a long rebuilding process in Detriot... again.
31) Jacksonville Jaguars
As bad as the Jaguars have been the past couple seasons at least the total teardown is over. All the important members from the 2017 AFC Championship game team are gone and it is fresh faces all over the board, including at the head coach position. Urban Myer was an interesting hire, especially given the fact he has zero NFL experience and will have to deal with a complete rebuild. At the very least Jacksonville will get Trevor Lawerence as their quarterback of the future.
32) Houston Texans
After making the playoffs just last year the Texans are far-and-away the worst team in the league. Less than six months ago Watson signed an extension to keep him in Houston. Now he has demanded a trade and it looks ever increasingly likely that he will be out of Houston by the time the season rolls around. JJ Watt was released just under a week ago at his own request and without a first round pick the Texans will likely not be able to add an immediate franchise changing talent. This organization is is some deep trouble and it looks like they haven't even bottomed out yet.
Photo Credits: Ashley Landis
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