1) Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)
Lawrence is the most hyped quarterback prospect since 2012 when Andrew Luck declared for the draft. Since he was a high schooler Trevor Lawrence has been projected as a great NFL QB and so far, he is on the trajectory to fulfilling that path. He has been the presumed number one overall pick since his freshman year in college and he has done nothing to change that notion. It is also worth noting that Jacksonville has a desperate need for an NFL-caliber starting quarterback, so there is no question about which position they are going to look at for the top pick. And despite a lackluster showing in the first round of the College Football Playoff, there is no doubt that he is the guy for whoever is coaching the Jaguars.
2) Jets: QB Justin Fields (Ohio State)
The gap between the number two quarterback and the number 3 quarterback has certainly shrunk, but as of now, Fields has the nod. First, Fields’ physical tools are certainly better than any of the other quarterbacks’ in the draft. And while he struggled at times with decision making in the 2020 season, namely against Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship game, he put a lot of those major concerns to rest with a resounding performance in the CFP semifinal. His arm strength was on full display as well. He is likely a safer choice than any other QB at two but an impressive Senior Bowl/combine performance from a Zach Wilson or Mac Jones could create some serious competition for this number two spot. But until then the Jets must feel good about Justin Fields despite missing out on Trevor Lawrence. While the Jets have Darnold I think they are ready to move on and pick a player with a much higher ceiling than what Sam Darnold has shown thus far, and Field’s performance against Clemson made them much more comfortable with the idea of picking a QB than they were two weeks ago.
3) Dolphins (via Texans): Penei Sewell OT (Oregon)
Despite potentially being the best-ever NFL prospect, and likely the best offensive line prospect since Orlando Pace in 1997, he will likely fall to at least 2 or even as low as 5. The Dolphins front office has announced that Tua Tagovailoa is their guy headed into 2021, so it is unlikely they select a quarterback. If they really are committed to Tagovailoa they either need to surround him with more weapons at wide receiver or more protection up front. Personally, I believe the more pressing need is in the protection because I have not been impressed with either tackle for the Dolphins and even if one thinks that Austin Jackson and Robert Hunt/Julian Davenport are serviceable players at offensive tackle for the moment Sewell could be a game-changing guard. Overall, Sewell is the best pure NFL prospect in this class regardless of position, and the Dolphins should be very happy if Sewell falls into their lap.
4) Atlanta Falcons: Zach Wilson QB (BYU)
Atlanta is in the definition of football hell. The pieces of a potential playoff team but at the same time lacking any real direction. A new coach will give this team some direction of whether they are ready for a full rebuild or if they are willing to give it one more shot at a Super Bowl run with Matt Ryan. Either way, this team needs a lot of help on defense, but there are not many defensive players that warrant a top-four pick in this draft class. Furthermore, given the depth at the top of the quarterback class in 2020, the Falcons should take advantage of this depth and select a potential franchise quarterback to sit under Matt Ryan or replace Ryan if he leaves. Given that Wilson is likely the last of the three top quarterbacks available the Falcons would likely go with him. Furthermore, if Raheem Morris is not the head coach and outsider may be more willing to move on from Matt Ryan as well. Simply put, a quarterback makes the most sense here but do not be shocked if the Falcons trade down to acquire more draft capital.
5) Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase WR (LSU)
Cincinnati is in its own sort of conundrum. They need plenty of offensive help all over the field. With Sewell gone they need to choose between trading down for more draft capital, an offensive lineman, or more weapons for Joe Burrow. Given the depth of offensive linemen in this class, they may choose to go with the most talented receiver in college football with Ja’Marr Chase. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both solid receivers, but a player like Ja’Marr Chase could replace AJ Green as the number one threat on the offense. Reuniting Joe Burrow with his favorite college wide receiver would seriously help the Bengals out as well. He likely would have been the top WR in the 2019 class had he been eligible and even after opting out of the 2020 season I still think he is the top wideout available and fits a need for Cincinnati, who as mentioned earlier lacked any real depth at wideout.
6) Philadelphia Eagles: DeVonta Smith WR (Alabama)
With Chase off the board, I think the Eagles go to the next best wide receiver available, which is either of the Alabama products in Jaylen Waddle or DeVonta Smith. Smith was more productive than Waddle in 2019 and in 2020 took another step even further showing off elite athleticism en route to winning the Heisman Trophy. The production of Smith over the past two years will entice the Eagles, and for a team that is seemingly bit by the injury bug every year, they might lean towards Smith over Waddle given Waddle’s recent injury. Honestly, I think this selection is either of the Alabama receivers but given Smith’s outstanding 2020 I think the Eagles are more likely to take Smith.
7) Detroit Lions: Micah Parsons LB (Penn State)
What the Lions do here is completely on what they do with Matt Stafford. If by draft day Stafford is not a Lion, they would most certainly go with Trey Lance here. However, assuming Stafford remains with Detroit, the Lions could go in several directions. The wide receiver situation is in a similar position with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr., and Danny Amendola all becoming free agents. Given the depth of the wide receiver class, I doubt they go this route in the first round though. The Lions defense struggled all year and at this point, it makes the most sense to pick the best defensive player available which is Micah Parsons. Parsons is an excellent tackler that can play sideline to sideline in the run game while helping bolster the pass rush off the edge or help a porous pass coverage. Regardless of the new head coach and defensive scheme Parsons would fit at any linebacker position. He can play both a 4-3 and a 3-4 middle or could even help as an edge rusher as well.
8) Carolina Panthers: Trey Lance QB (North Dakota State)
Personally, I am not totally sold on Trey Lance and would have liked to see him play more football in 2020 or come back to school in 2021, especially after his mediocre performance in NDSU’s only game against an average Central Arkansas team. However, he certainly has all the physical tools to be a good NFL quarterback. Furthermore, this past season proved that without Christian McCaffrey, Teddy Bridgewater is not the long-term answer in Carolina. Sitting behind an experienced and capable quarterback makes the most sense for a rawer prospect in Trey Lance. I feel as if Carolina is reaching here but if they really like Lance, they could trade back for draft capital while still being able to draft him later in the first round.
9) Denver Broncos: Patrick Surtain II CB (Alabama)
Similar to Atlanta, the Broncos are in football hell. Enough pieces to be considered playoff contenders but still missing some key pieces. With a new general manager, the Broncos drafting a quarterback if one of the top three or four falls to them or trading up to draft a quarterback is not out of the question. Bearing that in mind it is much more likely the Broncos go the best player available at nine. Given this, I think they go with Surtain out of Alabama. The best overall corner, and likely the second-best defensive player in the draft, Surtain really helps bolster a depleted Broncos secondary. This is especially needed in a division with 2 matchups against Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert every year.
10) Dallas Cowboys: Caleb Farley CB (Virginia Tech)
Given the state of the Cowboys will likely go the best non-Edge defensive player at ten. With both Parsons and Surtain off the board, Farley is the Cowboys' best bet. Defense will likely be the number one need addressed by the Cowboys this offseason (outside securing an extension for Dak Prescott). Even with the uncertainty of Mike Nolan’s status as the Defensive Coordinator, Farley’s flexibility would likely fit him into most coverage schemes. Furthermore, cornerback depth is a major issue for the Cowboys, so Farley fills a need perfectly. Additionally, his ball skills and ability to create turnovers is something Dallas desperately needs in the secondary.
11) New York Giants: Kwity Paye EDGE (Michigan)
There are two realistic directions the Giants likely go at eleven, wide receiver or an edge rusher, especially with the top two corners off the board by the time the Giants pick. With the depth at receiver, combined with the lack of depth at the edge position, the Giants may feel more comfortable with reaching a little on an edge player. Kwity Paye is an explosive athlete and is a flexible player who could play an interior position in a pinch. Paye’s technique is solid and would help to improve a lackluster Giant’s pass rush. This feels like a slight reach but overall, I think it is still a good pick for the New York Giants as it fills a big need.
12) San Francisco 49ers: Rashawn Slater OT (Northwestern)
San Francisco may just draft the best player available here, but their two most glaring needs are cornerback and offensive line. With the top two corners off the board and the depth of high-end offensive line talent in this class, they would likely take an offensive lineman who has slipped rather than reaching for a cornerback. Despite opting out, slater is still one of the top two offensive linemen in the 2020 class and presents similar versatility to Sewell in the fact he can play inside or outside. He is also excellent in both the run and pass game as well which contributes to his ability to play all five positions on the line. His work against Chase Young in 2019 was impressive and should make the 49ers comfortable with his ability to improve their pass protection.
13) Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Darrisaw OT (Virginia Tech)
The Charger’s biggest need is offensive line help plain in simple. They could upgrade at all five positions. And with the top two offensive linemen off the board, they would feel pressure to act on that need immediately or risk losing out on an elite offensive line prospect. Darrisaw, while not as versatile as Sewell or Slater could be the cornerstone left tackle the Chargers need. Darrisaw had a fantastic 2020 campaign and was one of the biggest risers in the draft going from a likely day two pick to a top 15 pick in the draft. He is probably the top pass protector in this draft and his athleticism lends itself well in a zone run scheme.
14) Minnesota Vikings: Alijah Vera-Tucker OT (USC)
The Vikings are in a difficult spot, their two biggest needs are interior offensive and defensive line, and those positions are generally more valued on days two and three. Though Alijah Vera-Tucker has shown at USC that he can play both guard and tackle. His versatility allows him to plug an immediate need in the short term at guard but could slide into a tackle role as his career progresses and the Vikings’ needs change. The biggest concern here is scheme fit, as he is more suited towards a zone running scheme, and with Kubiak’s retirement, there is no real telling which direction the Vikings may be headed on offense. Even so, Vera-Tucker’s athleticism could help him adapt to any scheme or position on the Vikings’ line.
15) New England Patriots: Kyle Pitts TE (Florida)
Plain and simple the Patriots’ offense was a train-wreck, and their wide receiver/tight end situation is one of the main culprits. With the runs on offensive linemen and quarterbacks, it puts the Patriots in a prime position to select potentially the second-best pass catcher in the 2021 class in Kyle Pitts. Pitts was phenomenal in his 2020 season as he was one of the main reasons for Florida’s offensive success. In the passing game, he can be lined up all over the field whether it be in a traditional tight end spot, in the slot, as an F-back, or even split out. He is a great athlete with good hands as well. He is also a good run blocker, making himself even more versatile. The Patriots get a steal at 15.
16) Arizona Cardinals: Jaylen Waddle WR (Alabama)
The Cardinals are in an interesting situation, do they bolster the offense to give Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury more weapons? Or do they prepare themselves for the departure of defensive pieces? If Waddle slips this far it is hard to imagine the Cardinals passing on a talent such as Waddle. Waddle has some of the best hands in the draft and could be the yards after catch receiver Kingsbury scheme relies on. His flexibility in his alignment is also a huge plus but he projects best out of the slot but can certainly play on the edge. His home-run ability should be a nice fit in the Cardinals' offense that is lacking more explosive receivers.
17) Las Vegas Raiders: Greggory Rousseau EDGE (Miami FL)
The Raiders in desperate need of pass-rushing help. And Rousseau has the potential to be a top tier pass rusher. While the Raiders have edge pieces in Clelin Ferrell and Maxx Crosby, Rousseau can rush the passer from the inside as well. He had an impressive 15.5 sacks in 2019 but opted out of the 2020 season. However, he is an extremely raw prospect. His technique is questionable and relied on his athleticism to make plays. Gruden will love his athletic traits and his ability to rush the passer from anywhere on the defensive line makes him a good fit for the Raiders.
18) Miami Dolphins: Rashod Bateman WR (Minnesota)
If the Dolphins are going to stick with Tua then they need to provide him with additional weapons outside of Devante Parker. With the top three receivers off the board, they may be tempted to go linebacker here, but Bateman can provide a vertical threat down the field for the Dolphins. Bateman has fantastic hands and can run plenty of different routes. He is not a finished product, but the Dolphins are not looking for an immediate number one wide receiver, and Bateman will be a nice compliment to Parker on the opposite side.
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